St. John Valley weather for Feb. 15-21, 2023

3-day Outlook: Wednesday, Feb. 15-Friday, Feb. 17

Skies remained mostly clear overnight allowing temperatures to fall into the lower single digits above thanks to radiational cooling.

Today, partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to increasingly cloudy skies in the afternoon as low pressure lifting into Canada across the western Great Lakes draws an occluding front eastwards. Tonight, the area of low pressure will track northeast through Quebec bringing a chance for light rain to the SJV as southerly flow across the region keeps temperatures above freezing at the surface and aloft.

Meanwhile, low pressure over the Midwest will track across the Ohio Valley Thursday and arrive in southwestern Maine by Friday morning. This will bring the likelihood of snow to the SJV Thursday night through Friday morning with 4-6 inches currently being the expected accumulation. A slight chance for sleet in the early morning period is also possible as some warmer air moves over the region aloft. High pressure builds in later Friday with gusty northwest winds and lingering snow showers for the Valley. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 0 to -5° range depending on the wind and sky cover.

Daily Summary

Today: A chance of rain and snow before 2 p.m., then a chance of rain or freezing rain between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m., then rain likely after 3 p.m.. Increasing clouds, with a high near 40. Wind chill values as low as minus 3. South wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tonight: Rain likely before 10 p.m., then a chance of rain and snow between 10 p.m. and 11 p.m., then a chance of rain after 11 p.m.. Cloudy, with a low around 35. South wind 10 to 16 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday: A slight chance of rain before 11 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. West wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Snow before 3 a.m., then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 19. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 8 a.m. High near 19. North wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 7 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around minus 2. Northwest wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.

4- to 7-day Outlook: Saturday, February 18-Tuesday, Feb. 21 

High pressure will dominate the Valley’s weather Saturday into Sunday. Low pressure slides by to the north pulling a weak frontal boundary across the region Sunday producing partly sunny skies. A warm front crosses the region Sunday night into Monday with increasing cloudiness. An occluding front moves across the area Monday into Tuesday with cloudy skies and afternoon snow showers mixing with then changing to rain overnight into Tuesday morning. Cooler air moves back in with snow showers lingering under mostly cloudy skies Tuesday.

Daily Summary

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Light west wind becoming southwest 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31.

Sunday night: Cloudy, with a low around 18.

President’s Day: A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent.

Monday night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent.

Tuesday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.

8- to 14-day Trends: Wednesday, Feb. 22-Tuesday, Feb. 28 

Below normal temperatures / Above normal precipitation

Note: Computer model precision diminishes the further into the week the forecast projects. Check the Fiddlehead Focus for weather updates with more current information.

The Week Ahead is the work of UMFK Professor Joseph E. Becker based on personal weather station data, various computer forecast models, and information that the National Weather Service, NOAA, and other weather resources provide.