St. John Valley Weather for Feb. 1-7, 2023

3-Day Outlook: Wed. Feb. 1 – Fri. Feb. 3

High pressure will bring mostly clear skies and quite cold temperatures to the region this morning. Clouds increase later today as high pressure moves south of the region and return flow draws some moisture over the Valley aloft. Partly cloudy skies are expected overnight with temperatures dropping to around 0°F in Fort Kent.

Southerly flow will increase Thursday ahead of an approaching Arctic front. Snow showers and snow squalls are expected to overspread the area ahead of the front Thursday afternoon and continue into the overnight hours Thursday night. Areas of blowing snow are possible after midnight as the wind shifts to the northwest.

NWS Caribou notes for Friday that “increasing winds will result in blowing and drifting of existing snowpack, particularly by Friday into Friday night. Open areas could experience whiteout and near ground blizzard conditions, particularly across Aroostook County where snow berms are high due to recent snowfall and deep snowpack.” 

Record low daytime high temperatures for Fort Kent are likely Friday (-6 in 1971) and Saturday (-3 in 1893) with -8F expected this Friday and -9F this Saturday. Per NWS Caribou forecast discussion: “This has the potential to be a historic Arctic outbreak, and the dangers of being caught unprepared without shelter from the elements and without proper winter survival gear cannot be stressed enough.”

Daily Summary

Today: Increasing clouds, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -22. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. Wind chill values as low as -12. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph.

Thursday: Snow showers likely, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Wind chill values as low as -10. South wind 5 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday Night: Snow showers, mainly before 2am. Patchy blowing snow after 4am. Low around -11. Wind chill values as low as -24. Blustery, with a south wind 14 to 21 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Friday: A slight chance of snow showers before 9am. Patchy blowing snow. Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -7. Blustery, with a northwest wind 22 to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night: Areas of blowing snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around -27. Windy, with a west wind 26 to 29 mph.

4-7 Day Outlook: Sat. Feb. 4 – Tue. Feb. 7 

While daytime highs are expected to remain well below zero Saturday, the wind will gradually diminish over the course of the day. High pressure is expected to crest over the region Saturday with winds becoming southwest and light Saturday night. While the center of the high’s location will influence overnight temperatures, even with partly cloudy skies across the area, overnight temperatures are expected to be near -30F. 

The arctic air mass moves east Sunday with clouds increasing as a weak cold front approaches producing a chance for snow showers. High pressure builds in Monday with decreasing clouds in the afternoon. Clouds increase Tuesday as a frontal system approaches with some afternoon snow showers possible.

Daily Summary

Saturday: Areas of blowing snow. Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -8. Windy, with a west wind 22 to 26 mph.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 

-27. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 20.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 0.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. Low near 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%. 

8-14 Day Trends: Wed. Feb. 8 – Tue.  Feb. 14

Above normal temperatures / Above normal precipitation

Note: Computer model precision diminishes the further into the week the forecast projects. Check the Fiddlehead Focus for weather updates with more current information.

The Week Ahead is the work of UMFK Professor Joseph E. Becker based on personal weather station data, various computer forecast models, and information that the National Weather Service, NOAA, and other weather resources provide.