St. John Valley weather for Feb. 16-22, 2022
Three-day outlook: Wednesday-Friday
Warmer conditions are expected Wednesday as breezy southern winds channel warmer air back into the region as high pressure moves to the east and return flow sets up. Cloudy skies develop Wednesday afternoon as a warm front lifts across the region.
Snow showers continue Thursday evening and mix with rain showers after midnight as warmer air moves over the Valley. Precipitation changes to all rain Thursday morning continuing into the afternoon. The cold front moves across the SJV Thursday with colder air moving in behind changing precipitation back to all snow Thursday afternoon/evening. Snow continues overnight into Friday morning with winter storm conditions expected for the northwestern portion of the County. Current estimates are for 6-8 inches snow accumulation for south/southeast portions of the Valley, including Van Buren and Grand Isle, 8-12 inches for Madawaska, Saint Agatha, Frenchville, and Fort Kent, and 12-18 inches for far northwestern Maine, including Estcourt Station.
Snow tapers off Friday afternoon with high pressure building in on brisk northwest winds Friday afternoon and evening with partly cloudy skies overspreading the region.
Wednesday, Feb. 16
Partly sunny in the morning then becoming cloudy in the afternoon with a high around 26 degrees. 30 percent chance for scattered snow showers in the afternoon with around 0.02-inch precipitation and less than 1-inch snow accumulation. South wind 4-8 mph in the morning increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon with gusts 25 to 30 mph.
Wednesday night, cloudy with a 50 percent chance for snow showers in the evening mixing with rain showers overnight. Precipitation totals less than 0.10-inch. Low near 24 degrees. South wind 15-20 mph in the evening then 10-15 mph overnight with gusts 25-30 mph.
Thursday, Feb. 17
Cloudy with a 100 percent chance for rain changing to snow in the afternoon. High near 42 degrees. Precipitation totals 1/10th to 1/4 inch with less than one inch snow accumulation. Southwest wind 5-10 mph gusting 20-25 mph.
Thursday night, cloudy with a 100 percent chance for snow. Precipitation totals between 3/4 and 1 inch with snowfall accumulations 6-10 inches in Fort Kent and vicinity. Low near 14 degrees. North wind 10-15 mph.
Friday, Feb. 18
Mostly cloudy in the morning with snow likely before tapering to snow showers and ending in the afternoon. 90 percent chance for precipitation with between 1/10- and 9/10-inch precipitation and 1 to 2 inches additional snowfall. High around 16 degrees. Northwest wind 10-15 mph gusting 25-30 mph.
Friday night, partly cloudy with a low around minus 7 degrees. 10 percent chance for isolates snow showers. Northwest wind 0-7 mph.
Four- to seven-day outlook: Saturday-Tuesday
High pressure will build across the Valley Saturday with temperatures closer to seasonal norms. Saturday night looks partly cloudy with temperatures falling to around 5 below. A fast-moving clipper low will cross the state Saturday night with a chance for scattered snow showers in the evening and a slight chance for snow showers overnight in Fort Kent and vicinity. Sunday will be partly cloudy, cold, and dry with increasing clouds Monday as a cold front drops towards the Valley from the northwest.
The cold front moves across the area Monday with little moisture and mostly cloudy skies. The front stalls out over the Gulf of Maine with a chance for snow Tuesday under mostly cloudy skies.
Saturday, Feb. 19
Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a 40 percent chance for scattered snow showers. High around 16 degrees. Southeast wind 0-7 mph.
Saturday night, mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy overnight with a 20 percent chance for snow showers in the evening then a slight chance for isolated snow showers overnight. Low near minus 4 degrees. West wind 0-7 mph.
Sunday, Feb. 20
Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. 10 percent chance for isolated snow showers. High around 21 degrees. Southwest wind 0-7 mph.
Sunday night, mostly cloudy with a low near 12 degrees. 10 percent chance for isolated snow showers. Southwest wind 0-7 mph.
Monday, Feb. 21
Mostly cloudy with a 10 percent chance for isolated snow showers. High near 26 degrees. Southwest wind 0-7 mph.
Monday night, mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance for snow/snow showers. Low around 4 degrees. North wind 0-7 mph.
Tuesday, Feb. 22
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance for snow. High near 17 degrees. East wind 0-7 mph.
Tuesday night, mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance for snow showers. Low around 13 degrees. Northeast wind 0-7 mph.
Eight- to 14-day trends: Wednesday, Feb. 23-Tuesday, March 1
Climate Prediction Center
Above normal temperatures / Above normal precipitation
Note: Computer model precision diminishes the further into the week the forecast projects. Check the Fiddlehead Focus for weather updates with more current information.
The Week Ahead is the work of UMFK Professor Joseph E. Becker based on personal weather station data, various computer forecast models, and information that the National Weather Service, NOAA, and other weather resources provide.