St. John Valley weather for July 1-7, 2020
Short-Term Outlook: Wednesday – Friday
The upper-level low pressure area that has been parked over southern New England will continue to stall there today into the overnight period then begin to open up and shift southeast into the Atlantic Thursday.
For the County, surface high pressure centered to the west in Québec will bring partly cloudy skies today and mostly clear conditions tonight. While there is plenty of moisture aloft (precipitable water levels around 1-inch), there is not significant triggering mechanism over the Valley to initiate much in the way of shower activity, so aside from a slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or shower, little-to-no precipitation is expected this Wednesday.
A cold front will drop south across the region Thursday. While there is a slight chance for thunderstorms in the late morning period–and the Storm Prediction Center has the SJV at marginal risk for isolated strong storms–current high-resolution forecast models generally indicate that storms will fire up to the south of the region tomorrow afternoon thus sparring most of the Valley from the stronger storms which are expected to feature heavy downpoours, gusty winds, and small hail. If the cold front approaches more slowly than projected and crosses the region in the afternoon, then the risk for strong/severe storms across the Valley will be greater.
Behind the front, skies become partly cloudy as high pressure builds southeast into the region from the Hudson Bay. Lower dew points and drier conditions are expected Friday with near to slightly above normal temperatures for Fort Kent and surrounding areas.
Today & Tonight
Partly cloudy with a slight chance for showers. High around 83 degrees F with north winds 0 to 5 mph shifting to the west/southwest 0 to 5 mph.
Overnight, mostly clear with a slight chance for showers. Low around 62 degrees F with west winds 0 to 5 mph. Some areas of fog possible overnight.
Thursday, July 2
Partly cloudy to partly sunny with a 30 percent chance for mainly afternoon showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms. Some isolated severe storms are possible. High near 79 degrees F with north/northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday night, partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance for showers. Low near 52 degrees F. North winds 0 to 5 mph.
Friday, July 3
Partly cloudy with a high near 76 degrees F with north winds 0 to 5 mph becoming west/southwest in the afternoon/evening.
Friday night, partly cloudy with a low near 52 degrees F. South/southwest winds 0 to 5 mph.
Medium-Range: Saturday – Tuesday
Partly cloudy skies and mild conditions are expected for the Fourth of July. A weak stationary front to the west will provide some energy for some showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. A weak trough to the west early next week brings a slight chance for showers and afternoon thunderstorms Monday under partly sunny skies. Tuesday looks drier with a slight chance for afternoon showers and partly cloudy skies.
Saturday, July 4 / Independence Day
Partly cloudy with a slight chance for precipitation. High around 80 degrees F with west/northwest winds 0 to 5 mph.
Saturday night, partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance for precipitation and a low near 54 degrees F. Southwest winds 0 to 5 mph.
Sunday, July 5
Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance for showers and a sight chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. High around 78 degrees F. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday night, partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance for showers. Low near 54 degrees F. West/southwest winds 0 to 5 mph.
Monday, July 6
Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance for showers and a slight chance afternoon/evening thunderstorms. High near 80 degrees F with south/southwest winds 0 to 5 mph.
Monday night, partly cloudy with a low near 55 degrees F and a slight chance for showers. Southwest winds 0 to 5 mph.
Tuesday, July 7
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance for showers. High near 82 degrees F with southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday night, partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance for showers. Low near 59 degrees F with southwest winds 0 to 5 mph.
Regional Long-Range Trends: Wed. July 8 – Tue. July 14
Above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation
Note: Computer model precision diminishes the further into the week the forecast projects. Check the Fiddlehead Focus for weather updates with more current information.
The Week Ahead is the work of UMFK Professor Joseph E. Becker based on personal weather station data, various computer forecast models, and information that the National Weather Service, NOAA, and other weather resources provide.